A Red Sox State of Maine

Why You Should Love the Pats

Rather than root against the Patriots, we should be rooting for the Patriots. They symbolize what we say we want in a professional sports team. Their continued dominance of the NFL gives us our best chance of restoring integrity and common sense to professional sports.

You can read the rest of Jason Whitlock's article here.

In another news, Manny Ramirez is Super Bowl bound! Party on, Manny! I have to assume, though, given that he grew up in NY city, that he's a Giants fan...

An Advantage or Not?

For everybody spazzing out about the "overconfident" Globe pre-selling the 19-0 Patriots championship book-including myself-I invite you all to take a look at this here.

Yeeeeah. So the hyperventilating media (such as Peter King, who I can't stand, and Mike & Mike, who I enjoy) needs to explain why it's so smug and horrible to be pre-selling Pats championship merchandise but not Giants? Does that potential book make the Giants overconfident and arrogant? Does it provide "bulletin board fodder" for the Patriots? Probably not, considering the Giants likely had nothing to do with it, just like the Pats had nothing to do with the Globe book. Championship merchandise is always made up in advance-otherwise, how do you explain the fact that the players can put on championship hats and tees immediately after the game is over? People need to get over themselves and stop believing every negative Patriots story the media feeds them. If the Giants win-or, conversely if you're a Pats hater, the Pats lose-it won't be because Amazon and the Globe pre-marketed a book.

But it might be because Plaxico Burress can't keep his mouth shut (for that matter, neither can Steve Tisch). First, the assertion that he and Amani Toomer are "maybe better" than Moss, Welker, Stallworth and Gaffney; now, he's predicting the score of the Giants' win (23-17). You know, it's fine that he thinks his team can win-I expect he would- and clearly it's become the trendy thing around the league to pick the Giants to pull off the upset (yes, I think the Giants can win, too, but it would have to be a perfect storm of mistake-free football on their part and the worst game of Brady's career on his). But why run your mouth about it? What purpose does it serve? I'm sorry, gang, but the Giants are just not a demonstrably better team than the Steelers, the Chargers OR the Cowboys, all of which had somebody flap their jaws prior to a game and all went down in defeat-sometimes ignomious defeat. I don't get it. The worst thing I can see that came out of the Pats' camp yesterday was...nothing, really. Nothing controversial, anyway.Tom Brady got a marriage proposal, Gostkowski said his name was hard to spell.

And Bill Belichick isn't going to have to waste time pulling a star player aside and tell him to "Shhhh!" the way Tom Coughlin is now.

(Aside: is there anything creepier than that Heineken ad where the zombie-looking robot chick pops a keg from her gut? Ugh. Makes my skin crawl.)

Injury report due today, and I'd bet a whole lot of money that Brady will be listed as "questionable."

Finally, after all the flurry about Jon Lester's cancer last year, I'm not sure why the Boston press and fans aren't paying the same respect to Joe Andruzzi, an important part of the Pats' three SB championships and now, at 32, is fighting his own cancer battle. I had no idea until SI published this story on it. Good luck to you, Joe. Thank you for all you did here, and my thoughts are with you and your family. 

Mets Win

Well, it looks like the Santana Wars are over. Finally. I'm not sure Bill Smith did his team any favors here-in fact, the baseball punditry seems to think he got hosed. But that's what happens when you play chicken sometimes. I don't pretend to understand a whole lot about the Mets farm system, but it seems to me that Phil Hughes by himself would have been worth more than what the Twins got for Santana. Two decent prospects and two fillers is how one of them described the package the Mets are sending. Carlos Gomez seems to be the guy with the most immediate upside, a speedy CF'er (who I can't figure out why the Twins would prefer over Jacoby Ellsbury) who looks like the heir apparent to Torii Hunter, and Deolis Guerra, an 18-year-old who is the personification of "potential" and may be major league ready in five years. So much for all the yak that the Twins had to have a ML ready prospect as part of the trade. While I'm disappointed the Sox didn't land Santana, I'm not broken up about it. Even with some anticipated time spent on the DL by both Schilling and Wake this year, I still think the Sox have the horses to win them the division title. I don't think the Yankees do without Santana, although to their credit they didn't break into a panic and throw the baby out with the bath, either. I'm also kind of sad because I really do like Coco Crisp, and I'm sure he'll be traded now before spring training, but I'm glad Jacoby Ellsbury is staying with the team and hopefully Jon Lester can consistently show us why the team's been so high on all that "potential" for so long now.

In an ongoing case of schadenfrade, it appears that Andy Pettitte may be preparing to drop a dime on his old buddy Roger Clemens. It wouldn't make that much difference to me, of course-I think both Clemens AND Pettitte are lying about their steroid use-but wouldn't it be delicious fun to watch the Yankee fans implode and start turning on each other if indeed that prediction comes to fruition? It would be like a city wide episode of "War of the Roses." From perusing other fan sites, it actually seems that most of them have pretty much accepted the fact that the savior was a juicer from 'way back and are now trying to blame his use on his "upbringing" in Boston, or just trying to discredit the whole process that exposed their world champions (no, I won't provide links because I don't want to drive up their traffic. but they aren't hard to find).  What was really amusing in the recent media was the attempt to even discredit the fact that Clemens and Pettitte were once buddies. Yeah, they worked out together, did commercials together, Andy called Roger to please come play with him in Houston...but they're nothing more than teammates! Andy's drug use had nothing to do with Roger Clemens because they weren't even friends!

Spare me. Please.

If Computers Ruled the World...

It would be 2001 to infinity, and the New England Patriots would be guaranteed a Super Bowl victory on Sunday. I have learned a whole lot about sports betting this season (more than I ever wanted to about "the spread," the failure of which to cover somehow turns a two-score victory into something disappointing), including the fact that computer simulations exist that take two teams, run simulated games that can account for things like the weather, and make credible predictions about who is more likely to win the game. As Gibby McCaleb at Accuscore explains:

So how does it work? Well, for simplicity sake, AccuScore creates virtual players using over 30 different attributes then we put those players on a team which also has attributes such as coaching tendencies, then we let them play a game, one play at a time. We record every possible statistic then repeat the process, 10,000 times. The AccuScore simulation engine even factors in things like wind, rain, snow, field type, injuries. You name it, it's taken into account.

Fascinating stuff. Can you imagine all that work just to find out the likely winner of a football game? And then to get paid for it? Well, according to the Accuscore, the NE Patriots have a 75% chance of completing the perfect season. The Pats, of course, still have to convert that 75% likelihood into performance. Accuscore gave the Colts a 70% chance of beating the Chargers, and the Cowboys a 67% chance of beating the Giants...and both of them folded like cheap suits un the actual games. It was remarkably accurate in predicting what the score of the Jacksonville game would be (it said 30-18 and it was actually 31-20). Here is what Accuscore has to say about the upcoming Big One:

The Patriots have a 75 percent chance of having the perfect season.  Tom Brady may have had 3 interceptions vs the Chargers, but with 2 weeks off and good weather in Arizona, Brady is averaging 2.4 TDs vs. just 0.8 INTs.  Eli Manning has been perfect (no turnovers) in the playoffs, but in simulations he is averaging 1 interception.  If Manning does not turn the ball over the Giants win 45% of simulations.  Both teams run the ball well with Jacobs-Bradshaw combining for 125 yards on 4.8 ypc vs. Maroney-Faulk who combine for 120 yards on 4.1 ypc.  At WR, Plaxico Burress is forecasted for the most receiving yards in the game (85 per sim), but Randy Moss is breaking out of his 2 game slump with a simulation high 0.9 reception TDs per sim.  The Patriots have a big advantage in converting on 3rd down (50% to Giants 37%) and as a result they win by an average score of NE 30, NYG 21.

Over at USA Today, the Pats are winning even more...

Sportsims.net, based in Defiance, Ohio, ran a simulated statistics-based game 500,000 times, and the Patriots won 79% of those, the highest winning percentage in the company's 21 years. It says it has a 15-5 record picking Super Bowl winners.

New England won by an average score of 31-18; the Giants' victories came by an average of 28-21.

"The Patriots are the better team by quite a margin," programmer-designer Dave Holt says.

TeamRankings.com, which uses 15 adjustable factors (power rating, average victory margin, points a game) in its online GameZone tool, agrees. It puts the Patriots' odds of winning at 88.5% and predicts victory by a margin of 13½ points, though that assumes the game is a home one for the Patriots. They are so designated by the NFL for the Super Bowl, but the game is in Glendale, Ariz. The Patriots are favored by 12 points.

Hmmmm. I wonder if the programs can account for gimpy quarterbacks, or vomiting corners...? Ahh, the intangibles.

Perspective

I've been hyperventilating all week over Tom Brady's ankle, Eli Manning's resurgence, the preservation of the perfect season, the Chuck-Knoblauch-as-Richard-Kimble show, and whether or not Johan Santana will end up in Boston, Flushing, or the Bronx. I've written a nasty letter to Nick Canepa (I don't know why I bother-guys who write snide stuff like this are really just trying to pick a fight) and a thoughtful one to Don Banks.  I bled angst over the campaign tactics of Bill and Hillary Clinton. I fretted all weekend about what to bring to a dinner party tonight.

Then I heard this, and it makes you realize that an 18-1 season or the wrong wine wouldn't be the end of the world. Really, in the grand scheme of things, it wouldn't matter at all.

Like most fans of Boston sports, I've read Bob Ryan for many years, and watched his stock rise on the national scene through the recent era of Boston sports dominance. I like him, although even if I didn't, I would still be deeply sympathetic about his loss. He and his wife now get to join the unhappy fraternity that includes Tony Dungy, my aunt and uncle (like Keith Ryan, my cousin Scott left three minor children), my mother's cousin and good friend...all parents of suicide victims. I'm guessing there's nary a family that hasn't been touched by this. My deepest condolences go out to Bob Ryan and his family.

RIP, Keith. I hope you can find the peace in the next world that eluded you in this one. 

The Truth Revealed?

I generally avoid reality shows like poison, as places brains go to die. But I would probably watch this.

Is Clemens Ready for His "Moment of Truth"?

The most popular new show on television is giving former Yankee pitcher Roger Clemens a chance to clear his good name -- and he can pocket a cool half mil in the process!

The FOX show "The Moment of Truth" -- which premiered to 23 million people on Wednesday -- sent a letter to the Rocket's manager, asking Roger to appear. Contestants on the show are asked a series of questions while hooked up to a polygraph machine -- and then have to own up to their answers in front of an audience comprised of their friends and relatives.

Howard Schultz, creator and Exec. Producer of the show, says Roger can put the steroids question to rest once and for all -- and donate his winnings to the charity of his choice. Schultz writes, "People have stood in awe at your incredible accomplishments in baseball. This show could let the world know that you are an incredibly courageous person, as well as to clear your name in front of a nationwide audience, all in the name of charity."

Calls to Clemens' management were not immediately returned.

And here's the letter they sent him.

LeBron James Is An Idiot

Remember LeBron James-Ohio born and bred guy, now playing for his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers-at the Jake during the AL playoffs last fall, sporting a Yankee cap? Yeah, well, it appears that he doesn't believe he has quite sufficiently chewed up the hand that feeds him. Check this out:

CLEVELAND - LeBron James loves the New York Yankees - from head to toe.

The Cavaliers' All-Star forward, who angered some Cleveland fans by wearing a Yankees baseball cap in the Indians' home ballpark while cheering for New York during last year's AL playoffs, has taken his devotion to the Bronx Bombers one step further.

James' newest sneaker in his signature line with Nike is a tribute to his favorite hardball team: the Yankees.

Dominated by the team's traditional blue-and-white color scheme, the Air Zoom LeBron V shoe features New York's famed pinstripes as well as James' No. 23, the number worn by popular Yankees first baseman Don Mattingly.

Also, under the tongue are the words: "Le-Bron Ja-Mes. Clap. Clap. Clap Clap Clap," a nod to the cheer New York fans reserve for their beloved Yankees, and on the strap is the phrase: "Fresh for '08. Suckers!"

Nike spokesman Kejuan Wilkins said the Yankees-themed shoe will be released in March. Initial plans are for it to be sold only in New York.

This isn't the first Big Apple-inspired shoe developed for the 23-year-old Akron native, who signed a seven-year, $90 million deal with Nike before he graduated from high school. Last year, the world's leading supplier of sports shoes and apparel released a LeBron James shoe with New York-style graffiti on it.

"LeBron has a great appreciation for New York City itself," Wilkins said, "and this is just another tie."

Now, I'm not saying he doesn't have the right to do this-if there were a law against stupidity in this country most pro athletes would be doing time-but it does demonstrate breathtakingly bad judgment and an utter lack of respect or understanding for the sensibilities of his own Cleveland fans. From a PR standpoint alone it just makes no sense, and the only reason I can imagine any New Yorker buying or wearing a pair ($250) is because s/he wants to twist the knife into some Indians fan. I mean, I wouldn't be caught dead in a pair of Patriots sneakers designed and marketed by Maryland native Cal Ripken Jr. I can't fathom why any New yorker would want a pair of these.

So what's really going on here? Greed. My guess is that LeBron's "great appreciation" of the Big Apple has more to do with of the New York spotlight and the dough that comes with it than the Yankees, and it's worth it to him to sully himself in Cleveland to get to it. Which is really, really sad, considering he will never be to the people of New York what he could have been to the people in Cleveland. But legacy doesn't matter to a lot of guys anymore if there are no dollar signs in front of it or zeros behind it. Oh, well. The pathetic Knicks could use him, and it looks like he'd be a perfect compliment to another really classy NY guy, Isiah Thomas.

Drip, drip, drip...

These two weeks between the championship games and the Super Bowl are interminable...no football, spring training still weeks away...yes, the Celtics are playing great but they're nothing more than filler to me, unfortunately.  So here's a few hit-or-miss shots to pass the time.

1. Did anyone see Jacoby Ellsbury at the Dunkin' Donuts in Westbrook yesterday? I've been so obsessed with Tom Brady's foot that I didn't even know he was in town until I saw it on the news last night, and anyway, I'm a Tim Horton's devotee. Still, it seems that we here in southern Maine could have found a better platform for a returning World Series hero than passing out joe at a donut shop.

2. It's bad enough that Fenway Park has become an epicenter of corporate interest over the past decade (I've never gotten over the fact that I have to read ads while I'm watching at-bats), but this completely takes the cake. Why is it that a team practically printing money needs to schill for a data management company on their uniforms? How unbelievably lame! I was hoping now that Steinberg was gone there would be less of this soul-selling shit, but evidently I was mistaken. And now John Henry is beginning to make insinuations about the Sox needing a new stadium. It makes you want to eat glass.

3. Anybody think Tom Brady's boot was a decoy? Think about it before saying "pshaw." Have we heard word one about Randy Moss's court date since?

4. I agree with Mike Weiss when he told Eric Frede the other day that Pats/Giants is not an extension of Red Sox/Yankees for a lot of reasons, most of which have to do with the fact that the teams have little history and rarely play each other during the course of any given year. Well, try telling that to the New Yorkers, who have been working overtime finding new and unique ways to insult both Pats AND Sox fans (yes, I know, 90% of one cheers for the other, but that's not the point) while insisting that the Giants MUST win this Super Bowl to avenge all previous Boston sports team wins. That's a pretty tall order to put on Eli, I must say. Anyway, folks, if you love New England, even if you don't like the Patriots or are neutral about them, at this point you're really obligated to cheer for them if for no other reason than to shut up the likes of Johnette Howard and her ilk.

Not to mention the effin' panic-stricken, pathetic '72 Miami Dolphins. C'mon, people, who do you really hate worse? Rodney Harrison or Mercury Morris? Be honest.

5. The Yankees had a payroll of $218 million last year. The Sox, $155 million. That's a difference of $63 million, or two Alex Rodriguezes and two Josh Becketts. And don't you Yankee fans start whining about the Dice-K posting fee, because the Yankees were also perfectly willing to pony that up on top of everything else, but they got outbid. 

Remembrance of Things Past

In case you slept through yesterday, Tom Brady made a visit to New York and was photographed wearing a walking boot on his right foot. (It was prominently circled in red by the morons at the NY Post, who were probably paying deference to the fact that most of their reading audience doesn't know their right from their left.) Anyway, to say it ruined my morning and the morning of my loved ones is an understatement of epic proportions. In between trips running to the bathroom to throw up blood, I got calls from both my mother AND brother, saying, "Did you hear about Brady's foot!?!" I would have preferred to begin the morning with a subpoena and a broken tooth. Thankfully, Tom Terrific showed up later walking tall in pointy-toed cowboy boots, probably hoping to stave off a mass suicide of New Englanders.

Anyway, during all this I had a flashback to a similar episode a lot of people won't even remember  unless  they were diehard Sox fans back in 1986, the year Roger Clemens really arrived. Yes, I know I can't speak of him now without spitting nails, but this was back in the day before he became a bloated caricature of himself and a national punchline. He was 23, young and slim (really!) and we were going to ride that golden arm to the promised land. He was absolutely amazing to watch, and had as dominating a year as I have ever seen before or since. So what happened? It's funny, because I really couldn't find any web references to it, and I had to go to my Red Sox Century book to refresh myself on the details, although I remember the emotion like it was yesterday. It was almost the last regular season game of the year, the Sox were playing the Orioles, and Clemens was on the mound. Second inning-whap! Clemens gets nailed in the elbow by a line drive off the bat of John Stefaro. Gave us all-and I mean the entire states of Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island and half of Connecticut-a collective heart attack. We couldn't've been more panicked if Godzilla had been strolling through town. I was in agony-THE PLAYOFFS WERE ONLY A COUPLE DAYS AWAY, AND OUR BEST PITCHER MAY BE OUT!!!!! (It didn't help matters any that the Sox FO then threw it in Clemens' face, saying-on the eve of the playoffs, mind you-that they wouldn't give him more than a two-year contract because of concerns about the injury.) X-rays were negative, and Clemens did pitch in the postseason...but he really was nowhere near the pitcher in the playoffs that he had been during the season, although how much can be put down to the elbow injury, overuse during the season (he threw ten complete games that year) or just him being pissed off at Gorman is hard to say.

So, yes...I saw all of that within seconds of seeing the boot on Brady's foot yesterday, most glaringly the part about the dropoff in performance that came after being hit...are Tom's cowboy boots the equivalent of Roger's clear X-ray...? But Tom said he was going to be all right. Tom's dad said he was going to be all right. Every orthopedist in Boston has weighed in on this, and they all think he is going to be all right. There are absolutely no parallels between an injury to the star pitcher 21 years ago just before the World Series-and the worst championship loss in Boston's history-and an injury to the star quarterback just before the Super Bowl, right?

RIGHT? 

Rudy Gets to First Base With Johnny

You can mark down January 21, 2008, as the day Rudy Giuliani officially jumped the shark. His campaign tanking, St. Rudy of 9/11 grabbed an endorsement today from none other than...Johnny Damon. Yep, that Johnny Damon, a registered Republican, had this to say about the former mayor (who is now lagging about 10 points behind John McCain in his home state of NY): “Rudy comes and visits me at the ballpark quite a bit, so I figure I could drive down the street and visit him here. Rudy has done such a great job for New York. After the terrorism, he stepped up and he made New York closer, he made America closer and he’s gonna make this country a better place."

Ok, putting aside, for the moment, the fact that Damon has been intellectually challenged by his own underwear at times and so might not be the best guy to get political advice from...or the fact that a Florida resident on the Royals roster from '95-'00 and the A's roster in '01 is not really qualified to comment on what Giuliani did for the city during his tenure...is it Giuliani really that desperate? What possible upside comes with an endorsement from Johnny Damon? I mean, this is the same guy who played so badly this year that some Yankee fans accused him of being a Theo plant. Or does Rudy think a thumb's-up from a guy who "banged the nurse" while his wife was giving birth is going to be what finally puts him over the top? It conjures up the image of Rudy visiting Johnny at the stadium and the two sharing tips on how not to get caught by the camera with your mistress, doesn't it? Yeah, the jesus camp freaks will love that one. I'm not sure Rudy completely thought that aspect out, which, among other things, doesn't speak well of his ability to critically analyze a situation. And it's not even like it was a ringing endorsement. Damon may as well have said, "Yeah, it was nearby, and I wasn't doing anything else."

As a side note, Giuliani has also pledged to invite the Yankees to the White House the next time they win the World Series...which is a very scary thought, as Rudy knows he'll have to alter the twenty-second amendment to fulfill that pledge because there's no way the Bombers even get to, much less win, the Fall Classic in the next eight years.

Obama in '08!